donderdag 6 maart 2014

Calculating The Upside in Gold via Supply and Demand Analysis

Sometimes it is interesting to be able to estimate the price increase in something, for example palladium or gold. We do that via supply and demand analysis.

Let's say that supply stays the same, because mines aren't going to suddenly increase their supply. Then we look only at the demand side. Because demand can go up and down very fast due to price fluctuations. If the gold price were to double, you could only buy half of the gold with the same money.

1) The case of palladium:
Currently we have a deficit of 1 million ounces of palladium per annum. This means that demand is 1 million ounces higher than supply. Currently the total demand of palladium is 8 million ounces and supply is 7 million ounces.

So if supply stays the same and we want to close the deficit gap, then we need to increase the price of palladium so much that demand will drop to 7 million ounces. That's a 1/8 = 12.5% decrease in demand.

There is a simple formula to calculate the price rise needed to decrease the demand by a certain percentage:

price rise = (100/(1-Demand decrease)) - 100

price rise = (100/(1-12.5%)) - 100 =14.3%

So if the palladium price rises 14.3%, then demand will fall 12.5%. That will close the deficit gap.

Investors can then sell their profits when the palladium price has risen 14.3%.

2) The case of gold:
Let's do the same for gold. We have supply and demand numbers here.

Supply = 3936 tonnes/annum
Demand = 5670 tonnes/annum 
Deficit = 5670-3936 = 1734 tonnes/annum

Demand will have to decrease 1734/5670 = 30% to close the deficit gap.

If we want to close the deficit gap, the price of gold at a constant supply needs to rise:

price rise =  (100/(1-30%)) - 100 = 43%

So gold needs to go from $1300/ounce to $1300*(1.43) = $1859/ounce to close the current deficit gap.

So there is your gold price target if all else stays equal (constant debt, money supply, inflation, mine supply, bank deposits): $1859/ounce.

(silver is just the same as gold, if gold goes up, silver goes up, you can put the two charts next to each other and see what silver will do, probably silver will go to $50/ounce)

2 opmerkingen:

  1. Hi Albert, great blog, just discovered it today whilst searching the web for an explanation behind Belgium's US treasury purchases (as you probably know, new stats are due to be published later today btw).

    Do you have any view on why Belgium is buying China's holdings of treasuries? It seems to be rather counter-intuitive, considering there is no central bank incentive, and Belgia's public indebtedness?

    Looking forward to your views.

    Kind regards,

    Martin (

    1. Hi Martin

      Why they want to buy it? Of course to support the U.S. bond market from falling apart, when the Chinese stopped buying it.