dinsdag 1 april 2014

Correlation between GLD ETF and COMEX

This is why I think the gold price is bottoming out, we have additional evidence at the COMEX.

When gold started its decline in April 2013, the COMEX registered stock level kept dropping due to outflows. This event was building up stress in the gold market as the gold price dropped.

The same has happened with the GLD ETF. So this is very interesting, it means that the GLD ETF and the COMEX gold stocks are correlated, which I didn't even notice up until now.

Since January 2014 both the COMEX and the GLD ETF bottomed out and started taking in physical gold stock. This made the price of gold go up more than 10% to date. You can see on the first chart that the registered gold stock at the COMEX is even increasing as we speak. This is a bullish indicator as this means that the GLD ETF gold stock level will increase too (if my correlation theory is correct). And everyone knows that when GLD takes in physical gold, that this is real physical demand pushing prices upwards.

Leverage has come down significantly due to the increase in registered gold at the COMEX. A further deleveraging should be bullish for gold.

By the way, gold should be much higher tomorrow as we start the new quarter. They tried to push the gold price down and stocks higher at the end of this quarter to make their books look good.

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