VIX season is starting

Stocks should underperform gold.  

Gold ETFs Vs. VIX

The VIX is bottoming out. Once it moves back up, then gold ETFs will rise. 

Gold ETFs rising to all time highs, could spike gold to $5000.

VIX seasonality.

VIX Vs. Gold/Stocks

When the VIX rises, gold outperforms stocks. 

VIX Vs. Stocks

Buy stocks when VIX is at 30 and sell stocks when VIX is at 20. 

VIX Vs. TED Spread

The volatility index (VIX) is correlated to the TED Spread. The TED spread is the difference between the three-month Treasury bill and the three-month LIBOR based in US dollars.

The VIX predicted gold's bottom

As predicted, the top in the VIX in 2008 and 2020 coincided with the bottom in gold.

VIX Vs. Margin Debt Gold Selling

One of the reasons why gold is declining together with the stock market is because of margin debt selling. To cover stock losses, investors needed to sell their gold and silver. The VIX shows when this margin selling occured in 2008. Today in 2020 we see a similar spike in the VIX and this might call the top in margin selling again. Each time this happened, easy money started to flow in from central banks and the gold price recovered sharply.

 

Yield Curve Vs. VIX

The 10 year - 2 year bond spread is a leading indicator for the VIX with a 2 year delay. For more info, go here.

(and the VIX is also called the fear index and is correlated to gold)