The global food price index is a leading indicator for fertilizer prices. The green line is the Gregg Ibendahl ammonia forecaster, which is a leading indicator for fertilizers.
Fertilizer price index can be found here.
Potash is historically not that expensive when you compare it to the yield gain. Watch the potash cost curve.
Watch the affordability index.
Natural gas is correlated to ammonia and fertilizer prices.
Fertilizers are correlated to food prices/production.
Watch the sulphur price as it is correlated to fertilizers.
Check the drought report. Higher drought means higher food prices.
The stock to use ratio is a leading indicator for food prices. Whenever stock to use ratio drops, food prices rise.
The crop yield is a leading indicator for food prices. Whenever crop yields drop, food prices rise. Global crop yields can be found here.
Watch the trend in meat consumption, which is the main demand for feed.
Watch the trend in growing season. As the solar minimum approaches in 2025, the growing season will drop and lead to less food production and higher food prices.
Farmland values are correlated to fertilizers.
U.S. farmland values can be found here.
Brazilian farmers use more and more fertilizers per ha.
Brazil potash imports.
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