zaterdag 30 mei 2015

Gold/Silver Update

The interesting event for this week is to be found at COMEX gold and silver.

Registered gold is still hanging at lows.

The result is that leverage is still at record highs.
 

As gold is difficult to come by (especially when everyone is going to repatriate their gold), they turn to silver. Registered silver stock is seeing a trend change to the downside too.


This results into the same leverage build-up.
 
 On the managed money short side, the picture in gold is stable.

 

But for silver, the managed money funds are getting scarily long, which indicates that there will be a contrarian correction in silver to the downside.

  

On the premium side, we are seeing that they are dropping. It seems that nobody is interested in precious metals in the U.S.


This is visible in U.S. Mint sales, which are going nowhere but down.

Except for the Chinese, where silver premiums are still rising. Even though the silver inventories this week at Shanghai are rising to a record 350 tonnes (from a low of 90 tonnes in September 2014).
 

On the GLD inventory, we see that we are steadily going down. Of course, this can't go down a lot more, because there is no gold left at the COMEX.

On the SLV inventory side things are looking flat.


Conclusion:
We see that the precious metals hub is definitively changing from the West to the East. The West doesn't have any gold and doesn't trade gold, while the Asians get more and more interested in precious metals. In the short term, we could see some downside due to an unfavorable COT report, but when looking at the leverage in COMEX stock, the gold price could blow up to the upside at any time. Timing is key, when the stock market crashes, gold will go up due to its inverse correlation. Will the stock market crash? Yes it will, we can see that in the declining macro indicators, lower GDP, lower PMI, jobless claims rising again, higher U.S. deficits, etc...

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