zondag 5 augustus 2012

Biggest drop in U.S. bonds in 2 months

A little update on the decoupling experiment I started 2 months ago. I wanted to see if the S&P could decline together with a decline in U.S. bonds and the U.S. dollar. This would mean each graph (red, green, blue) on chart 1 would go down. It hasn't started doing that yet.

What I did want to take note of is the big decline in U.S. bonds (green graph). On Friday 3 August, 10 year U.S. bond yields spiked to a 1.563% yield. This is almost a 10 basispoints rise in yield. Probably people are worried about the massive U.S. debt, which went to a record 15.933 trillion dollars from 14.8 trillion dollars a few weeks earlier.

The debt ceiling of 16.3 trillion (to be heightened to 16.7 trillion) is near. I predict this debt will go up even faster because no QE3 has been implemented, which means yields will go up and as a consequence interest payments on debt will go up as well.

Chart 1: Monitoring of decoubling USD vs. bonds vs. stocks

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