dinsdag 7 augustus 2012

China Outperforms Anyone

Charts do tell us something. 

For example, when we plot the GDP of the top 20 countries in the world in a nice stacked area chart, we can clearly see that no other country than China has significant positive GDP growth. At this growth pace, it will only take 5 more years before China becomes the largest economy of the world on a country by country basis.

Yes, only 5 years! Because GDP growth may be denominated in percentage terms (which seem to be constant), but those percentage terms accumulate each year to the principal number.

Just imagine this event happening...

3 opmerkingen:

  1. In July 2012, China was experiencing a mild slowdown in GDP growth (to 7.2%) and subdued inflation (1.8%). Does this mean the announcement a fiscal or monetary stimulus package will be introduced? If so, when will it be announced?

    1. I don't know. The yuan is declining versus USD, should be enough.

  2. I think the negative impact of Eurozone debt crisis has taken everybody by suprise. Sales to European Union fell 16.2% percent in July 2012, so maybe the downturn is sharper than expected.

    Back in May 2012, many analysts expected the People's Bank of China to cut interest rates and/or bank reserve ratios. For some reason, no monetary stimulus was announced.

    Perhaps the politburo is planning a new fiscal stimulus package instead. However, this might be delayed until November 2012, when the new appointees take office.