maandag 4 maart 2013

Correlation: Large Commercial Shorts in Copper Vs. Copper Price

Just for Discerning Admirer I looked at the CFTC report for Dr. Copper.

The same correlations as in silver and gold can be found here. When large commercials go short, we hit a top in the copper price. When large commercials cover their shorts and go long, the copper price bottoms out.

In the most recent February 2013 smackdown of copper we see that a lot of shorts have covered their short positions in copper. The red bars were very negative (a lot of commercial short interest), but those negative red bars have now subsided back to zero.

That means I expect that the copper smackdown has run its course for now.

This report, together with the contango report should give us an idea of the trend in the copper price. I can't wait to see the contango report for tomorrow.

I emphasize: this is only an indicator for short term moves. For long term moves you should always look at the contango report. The contango report says we are still in contango, which means the copper price will go up.

Chart 1: CFTC Report Copper
Chart 2: Copper Price
PS: I haven't found a correlation between LME copper stock and copper price yet.

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