zondag 3 maart 2013

Correlation: Total Central Bank Balance Sheet Vs. Gold Price

I once said there was a correlation between the Federal Reserve balance sheet and the gold price. As a result there is also a correlation between M1 and the gold price. This is still the case.

But gold is universal, so you should look at the balance sheets of every central bank in the world.

Chart 1: Total Central Bank Assets
Even though the Federal Reserve balance sheet has been going up due to QE3, there is one central bank that did the opposite recently. That dreaded central bank is the ECB.

As you can see on Chart 2, the ECB has shrinked its balance sheet due to the repayment of LTRO. European banks paid off 137 billion euro on 25 January 2013. So you can see the dip here.

Chart 2: ECB Assets
That repayment of LTRO coincided with a rise in the EUR/USD (Chart 3).

Chart 3: EUR/USD

And a drop in gold price in euros.

Chart 4: Gold Price in Euro

So forget complacency in the Eurozone as reason for the dropping gold price. Just look at the balance sheet of the ECB as primary reason.

We may not forget that the ECB has one of the largest balance sheet in the world (after China) and we need to monitor their balance sheet even more than the Federal Reserve balance sheet. Japan should be monitored closely too.

You can monitor the ECB balance sheet here.
For the Japanese balance sheet you must google it.


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