zondag 21 december 2014

SGE Withdrawals - Unilateral SGEI Trading Volume < Chinese Gold Demand < SGE Withdrawals

I wish Chinese gold demand could be given weekly through the SGE, but the Chinese are making it complicated with the opening of the SGEI. Ok, so let's follow Koos Jansen's new technique:

SGE Withdrawals - Total Unilateral SGEI Trading Volume < Chinese gold demand < SGE Withdrawals

This is because the weekly SGE withdrawal numbers include SGEI withdrawals, which can either be real Chinese gold demand or foreign gold demand. So the Chinese gold demand lies between the SGE number and the SGE - SGEI number.

The reasoning is given here:
Gold bought by domestic banks on the SGEI and withdrawn from the “International Board” Certified Vault in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone (FTZ) to be imported into the mainland is not required to go through the “Main Board”/SGE (click here  for an introduction on the SGE, SGEI, IB, MB, FTZ, etc). Meaning: the volume traded on the SGEI can distort Chinese wholesale gold demand measured by SGE withdrawals numbers. This is because we simply don’t know who the SGEI traders are; domestic banks from the mainland that buy and withdrawal gold to import – in this case withdrawals would count as Chinese demand – or for example buyers from Singapore – in this case withdrawals would be exported to Singapore?

That's all nice and well, but if something were to happen to Koos someday, how can we calculate it ourselves?

First go to this site, which gives weekly SGE withdrawal numbers and SGEI trading volumes: http://www.sge.com.cn/xqzx/xqzb/

The SGEI trading volume can be found in 3 products. The International Board has launched three new physical products international customers can buy and sell. So you need to make the sum of the trading volume of all three products and make it unilateral:
  1. iAu100g       physical product       100 gram gold bar    fineness 999.9
  2. iAu99.99      physical product       1 kg gold ingot          fineness 999.9
  3. iAu99.5        physical product       12.5 kg gold ingot     fineness 995.0

Example: Let's calculate Chinese gold demand for week 50.

Week 50:

SGEI Unilateral Trading Volume = (0.1+1.3+12313.4+4.1)/2 kg = 6159 kg.

SGE Withdrawals = 50027.5 kg



50027.5-6159 kg < Chinese Gold Demand < 50027.5 kg

Or

43868.5 kg < Chinese Gold Demand < 50027.5 kg

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