"The copper market is in an uptrend. The copper market looks like it is going to break higher due to an improving economy in China and the improving housing market in the U.S. If copper is going to make a run higher, silver is going to go higher and the bears are going to have to cover."
Let's see what the coming months will bring. If Dan and I are right about a break out to the upside in the copper market, this could spark a run in the commodities and stock markets.
Chart 1 indicates that a huge move is about to come, as we are nearing the end of a wedge pattern.
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| Chart 1: Copper Price |
A falling wedge is a generally bullish pattern signaling that the price of copper break upwards through the upper wedge line.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenYour prediction on the 9th of December looked very good, as the price of copper increased from $3.67/lb to $3.70/lb on the 12th of December.
However, the price has now dropped back to $3.65/lb. This means that the falling wedge is not converging as you were predicting; instead the thin end of the wedge is getting thicker, such that the bullish signal is weakening.
There is also an inherent problem in Technical Analysis is that the past cannot provide reliable signals about the future.
What is more likely to happen between now and January 2013 is that the price of copper is likely to drop below $3.60/lb because of weak demand and uncertainty about the Fiscal Cliff in the US and the banking system in Europe.
That reminds me about today. We have another data point for copper contango, let's see what our data point gives. I'll post the results.
VerwijderenI think it's too soon to confirm anything yet, copper is still at its highest point and could still break out.
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