dinsdag 1 januari 2013

2013: The Rise of Asia

We just had news yesterday that China's PMI went positive to 50.6, even by the standards of HSBC. This means that the GDP growth per year of China is going to increase. It is estimated that China will have a GDP growth above 8% in 2013.

I think that's going to be a certainty. We can already see that base metal prices are rising as I pointed out the correlation between China PMI and base metal prices in this article.

I believe the copper price is in break out mode (Chart 1).

Chart 1: Copper Price
The iron ore price is increasing again after one year of downtrending(Chart 2).

Chart 2: Iron Ore Price
Shanghai real estate prices are soaring to new one year highs (Chart 3).
Chart 3: Shanghai Real Estate
Even the Shanghai Composite has made a big shift upwards after a multi year decline (Chart 4).
Chart 4: Shanghai Composite
And all of this is because the U.S. is in big trouble due to the unsterilized buying of bonds through plain money creation out of thin air and expansion of the federal reserve balance sheet. This unsterilized buying is the most inflationary action the federal reserve can take. It is even more inflationary than the ECB's sterilized Outright Monetary Transactions (O.M.T.) buying of European bonds. That is because the money supply doesn't increase when you perform sterilized buying, while unsterilized buying increases the money supply. Then we have the fiscal cliff which will be an enormous burden on the middle class citizens in the U.S. It is estimated that the 3% GDP growth will at least slow down to 1% due to the fiscal cliff situation. And don't forget the debt ceiling, which is already taking its toll on government workers in the Pentagon.

This is why the money is flowing to other assets in this world (Asia) and even into the euro right now.

We need to acknowledge that the U.S. doesn't have any bullets left at this moment...

2 opmerkingen:

  1. I want to thank you for your blog. I find myself checking it every day to find out what interesting thing you are finding next. Keep up the great work. Cheers and Happy New Year.

    1. Thanks for following my blog, I get enjoyment from getting more and more subscribers.

      It's like we're on a journey to explore the wonderful world of economics in real life!