donderdag 31 januari 2013

Registered Silver Not Increasing With Open Interest

For people who are worried about the recent rise in the total silver stock at the COMEX I want to point out that the registered inventory hasn't gone up (Chart 1). Only the eligible inventory has gone up. The ratio of registered to eligible is now 33%. In 2009 it was 133% (more registered than eligible silver) (Chart 2).

Chart 1: Silver Stock COMEX
The lowest ratio historically was 40% mid 2011 if we look on Chart 2. But today the ratio is even lower as I stated before (namely 33%). Eligible silver is now at the highest ever while registered silver is at the lowest ever. The reason for this is that people are taking delivery on their physical silver. That's the fact. Only registered silver counts, eligible silver is just a warrant that can be converted into registered silver. But you need to find this registered silver somewhere of course...

Chart 2: COMEX silver stock
The funny thing is that open interest is increasing now. As of the previous week open interest had increased to 148,351, which is pretty high. The short positions have increased too.

As I pointed out before, if open interest and short positions increase, but the registered inventory doesn't increase, it says to me that there is a shortage of silver. The reason is, if you are crowded with silver traders, you need to have the physical stock available, so registered silver needs to be going up, which it is not.

And you know what happens when there is a shortage of silver...

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