This week, the copper price kept rising with a higher contango, which is very unusual.
Something needs to happen soon, either the copper price is going to drop precipitously, or the copper price is going to shoot upwards with a declining contango.
When you noticed this pattern back in your post of Dec 9th, the price of copper was $3.67/lb, but it has gone down to $3.63/lb one month later. This means outlook for copper has remained pessimistic, despite the contango suggesting their will a rebound.
You are corrrect that the contango will reverse, but the current pessimism may well continue for another month. What is missing from your analysis is some sort of indicator as to when this reversal will happen.
When you noticed this pattern back in your post of Dec 9th, the price of copper was $3.67/lb, but it has gone down to $3.63/lb one month later. This means outlook for copper has remained pessimistic, despite the contango suggesting their will a rebound.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenYou are corrrect that the contango will reverse, but the current pessimism may well continue for another month. What is missing from your analysis is some sort of indicator as to when this reversal will happen.